Thanksgiving food shortage 2026? What USDA's numbers say about turkey, eggs and prices

What USDA's October outlook says about turkey

USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) publishes the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook monthly. The October 2026 edition, dated October 16, 2026, raises its 2026 turkey production forecast by 35 million pounds to 5,134 million pounds. Its table lists 2025 turkey production at 4,844 million pounds, so the 2026 forecast is about 6 percent higher (our arithmetic). It lists fourth-quarter 2026 production, the quarter that includes Thanksgiving, at 1,320 million pounds, against 1,242 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.

ERS also says August turkey slaughter was 17.0 million head, 4.5 percent more than August 2025, and that turkey eggs in incubators on September 1 totaled 25.2 million, up 2.0 percent from September 2025. It raised its 2026 turkey export forecast by 20 million pounds to 461 million, citing a faster than expected export pace and higher production, and says a substantial portion of 2027's increased production is expected to be shipped abroad. Its table also lists per-capita turkey disappearance at 13.7 pounds in 2026 against 13.2 pounds in 2025.

Nothing in that report describes a shortage, and we did not find one in the USDA pages we read. That is a statement about what we read, not a promise about your local store: individual stores can run out of a size or brand on any busy shopping day.

What is expensive: turkey prices

ERS says weekly prices for frozen whole hen turkeys remain elevated, with bids averaging 184.0 cents per pound for the week ending October 2, and prices for frozen toms and fresh hens similarly high. Its 2026 annual average for frozen whole hens is 175.5 cents per pound, and it expects a fourth-quarter average of 175 cents per pound, citing demand strength as the autumn buying period begins. Its table shows the 2025 annual average at 135.8 cents per pound, so the 2026 average is about 29 percent higher (our arithmetic).

These are USDA's wholesale-market prices (its table lists 8 to 16 pound hens), not the price on a store shelf, which varies by store and by sale. ERS projects 145 cents per pound for 2027, below 2026's 175.5 (our comparison), though it says recent price strength is expected to carry forward into next year. Its next outlook is due November 17, 2026, before Thanksgiving Day on Thursday, November 26.

In practice that means a turkey may cost more than last year, which is our reading of USDA's numbers. USDA's guidance on buying says to leave time to defrost a frozen bird, and not to buy fresh until one or two days before (details below).

Bird flu and turkey flocks, dated

ERS says highly pathogenic avian influenza has reappeared in several commercial turkey flocks in August and September as fall bird migration begins. It records eleven cases across Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota and South Dakota in September, affecting a total of 544,900 birds, and two cases affecting 119,300 birds in August (data as of October 9, 2026). USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) says detections are higher in the fall and spring because wild birds spread the virus as they migrate, and that more than 218 million turkeys were processed in the United States in 2023.

For people, the CDC's A(H5) bird flu page, dated October 15, 2026, says the current public health risk is low, and that the virus is causing outbreaks in poultry and U.S. dairy cows with sporadic human cases in U.S. dairy and poultry workers. We have a separate guide on a recent bird flu headline.

USDA's counts will change as the season goes on. APHIS keeps a current dashboard of confirmed detections on its website.

Eggs, groceries and the rest of the table

ERS's Food Price Outlook, updated October 23, 2026, says egg prices rose 1.0 percent from August to September 2026 but were 20.6 percent lower than in September 2025, and it forecasts egg prices to fall 29.3 percent in 2026 (a forecast interval of -31.6 to -26.7 percent). It says USDA is projecting an increase in egg production in 2026 over 2025. Poultry prices were 1.1 percent higher in September 2026 than a year earlier, and food-at-home prices were 1.8 percent higher.

ERS says beef and veal prices were 3.5 percent higher in September 2026 than in September 2025, and forecasts all food prices up 2.8 percent for 2026. We cover how those forecasts compare with the World Bank's in our food prices 2027 check. We did not find USDA data on cranberries, pumpkin or other side dishes, so we say nothing about them.

Buying, thawing and handling: what USDA says

USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) says a frozen turkey, cooled to 0 degrees F or lower, is the kind most sold in the United States, and to leave enough time for it to defrost. A fresh turkey should not be purchased until one or two days before Thanksgiving, unless the manufacturer's tag has a "Best by" or "Use by" date showing it will be safe until then; with no tag, buy it the Tuesday or Wednesday before at the earliest, and if you bring it home before Tuesday, freeze it. FSIS says that while frozen, a turkey is safe indefinitely.

For thawing, FSIS lists three safe ways: in the refrigerator, in cold water, and in the microwave oven. Refrigerator: allow approximately 24 hours for each 4 to 5 pounds in a refrigerator set at 40 degrees F or below. For a whole turkey that is 1 to 3 days at 4 to 12 pounds, 3 to 4 days at 12 to 16 pounds, 4 to 5 days at 16 to 20 pounds, and 5 to 6 days at 20 to 24 pounds. A thawed turkey can remain in the refrigerator for 1 or 2 days before cooking. Cold water: allow about 30 minutes per pound, with the turkey in a leak-proof bag, changing the water every 30 minutes, and cook it immediately after thawing.

FSIS says a package of frozen poultry left thawing on the counter more than 2 hours is not at a safe temperature, and that the internal temperature of cooked turkey must be a minimum of 165 degrees F, measured with a food thermometer. It says to store leftovers within two hours of cooking (one hour if above 90 degrees F) and to use or freeze them within four days. For help with meat, poultry and egg products, call the USDA Meat and Poultry Hotline: 1-888-MPHOTLINE (1-888-674-6854). If a Thanksgiving power outage hits, see our food safety in a power outage guide.

Do you need to buy anything?

No. USDA forecasts more turkey production in 2026 than in 2025 and we found no USDA statement of a shortage, so a headline is no reason to buy a second turkey or stock a freezer. A food thermometer, which FSIS says to use to measure turkey's internal temperature, is the one tool the guidance leans on; you may already own one.

If you want to keep a pantry for emergencies, that is a separate project (see our emergency food storage guide).