Is a winter storm hitting 7 states with 16 inches of snow? What the warnings say

Update, October 28: the "18 inches" headline

On October 28, Autoblog ran the headline "Winter Storm Warning: Up to 18 Inches of Snow Through Thursday." It is the same pattern. The only Winter Storm Warning in force anywhere in the US that morning was from NWS Fairbanks, for the south slopes of Alaska's Western Brooks Range and the Noatak Valley: "6 and 12 inches near Red Dog Mine and 12 to 18 inches in the Western Brooks Range," with gusts to 35 mph. Autoblog's article names NWS Fairbanks and those places. The headline doesn't.

In the lower 48, NWS had only Winter Weather Advisories that morning, all for mountains: the Washington Cascades, with up to 9 inches near the Cascade crest, and the East Glacier Park region of Montana, with 4 to 8 inches above 6,000 feet. If you live or drive in those mountains, check your local forecast. Everywhere else, this headline isn't about you.

What is being shared

On October 26, Men's Journal published, and Yahoo carried, a story headlined "Winter Storm Hits 7 US States Monday as Up to 16 Inches of Snow, 55 MPH Winds Loom." The seven states are Alaska, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota and North Dakota.

Read quickly, it sounds like a foot or more of snow and damaging winds across a big slice of the country. The figures are real National Weather Service numbers, but they come from a very particular place.

What the National Weather Service actually issued

When we checked the NWS alert feed on Monday, October 26, the only Winter Storm Warnings in the country were from NWS Fairbanks, Alaska. The south slopes of the central Brooks Range were forecast to get 8 to 16 inches of snow, with gusts as high as 35 mph. The Upper Koyukuk Valley was forecast to get 8 to 12 inches, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Both warnings ran until 10 PM Alaska time on Monday.

The 55 mph figure comes from a separate Winter Weather Advisory for the Central Brooks Range and Atigun Pass: 3 to 6 inches of snow, south winds of 30 to 40 mph and gusts up to 55 mph. Around Fairbanks itself, the advisory was for up to 2 inches of snow and a light glaze of ice.

In the lower 48, the one winter alert we found was a Winter Weather Advisory from NWS Great Falls for the Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and the Centennial Mountains in Montana: 2 to 5 inches of snow and gusts as high as 40 mph, from Monday evening to early Tuesday.

What the article itself says

To be fair to the story, its body is more careful than its headline. It says Alaska is the biggest concern, and that the other six states face "varying chances of early-season snow." It also notes that snow falling during warmer daylight hours may struggle to stick.

Rapid City, South Dakota, shows the gap. NWS's Monday forecast there was rain and snow likely before noon, then a chance of rain, with a high near 40. Tuesday's forecast was mostly sunny with a high near 66.

Why headlines count states

A count of states tells you little about your own street. NWS says each of its offices issues warnings, watches and advisories based on local criteria, and that the amount of snow that triggers a Winter Storm Warning in the Northern Plains is typically much higher than in the Southeast. A headline that adds up states and quotes the biggest number in any of them will often be describing a mountain range.

The useful question is always the same: is there an alert for where you live? Our live winter storm warning page lists every active winter storm warning and advisory by state, straight from NWS.

What it means for your home

If you are under a Winter Storm Warning, take it seriously. NWS says travel will become difficult or impossible in some situations, and to delay your travel plans until conditions improve. Ready.gov's advice is to pay attention to weather reports and warnings, and to sign up for your community's warning system.

If you're not, late October is a good, calm time to get ready for the season. Our winter storm preparedness guide covers the home, and the winter car emergency kit covers the car. NWS suggests a battery-powered NOAA Weather Radio and a portable radio for emergency information.

What not to do

Don't plan around the biggest number in a national headline, in either direction. A 16-inch forecast for an Alaska mountain range isn't a reason to stock up in Denver, and a calm headline isn't a reason to ignore a warning for your county. Your local NWS office's forecast is the one that counts.