Is there a turkey shortage in 2026? What USDA's numbers say before Thanksgiving

What is being shared

Search for "turkey shortage 2026" and the top results are last year's. Food & Wine's headline from November 13, 2025, republished on Yahoo, reads "A Turkey Shortage Could Make This Thanksgiving the Most Expensive in Years," and its key points say "The U.S. faces a potential turkey shortage this Thanksgiving." A market-intelligence article from September 2025, "US Turkey Shortage Worsens as Processors Struggle to Meet Demand," also still ranks.

This fall's coverage is more measured. Newsweek reported on September 15, 2026 that a fresh wave of bird flu had struck commercial turkey farms across Minnesota and the Dakotas, "affecting more than 417,000 birds," and added that "federal officials have not indicated that the latest cases will cause a nationwide shortage." Food World News wrote on October 14 that USDA had raised its turkey price forecast and that "USDA has not projected a Thanksgiving turkey shortage."

So the question people are typing is a 2025 headline meeting 2026 data. Here is what the data says.

What USDA actually reports: more turkey, but fewer whole birds

USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) of October 9, 2026 put 2026 turkey production at 5,134 million pounds, up from 4,844 million pounds in 2025. That is about 6 percent more (our arithmetic). For the fourth quarter, the one that includes Thanksgiving, it projects 1,320 million pounds, against 1,242 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. USDA's per-person use (disappearance) figure rises from 13.2 pounds in 2025 to 13.7 pounds in 2026.

USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) gave the detail on October 16: August turkey slaughter was 17.0 million head, 4.5 percent more than August 2025, and turkey eggs in incubators on September 1 were up 2.0 percent from a year earlier. Its 2026 export forecast rose 20 million pounds to 461 million, so some of the extra production is leaving the country.

The catch is the kind of turkey. WASDE says turkey price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 "are raised on current price strength and tight supplies of whole birds." Whole birds are what most families roast. More turkey meat overall does not mean more frozen whole turkeys in the case.

Frozen whole turkeys: the fewest for a September since 2001

USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) counts what is in the nation's freezers each month. Its Cold Storage report of October 23, 2026 says total pounds of turkey in freezers on September 30 were down 9 percent from the month before and down 5 percent from September 30, 2025. Frozen whole turkeys came to 195.8 million pounds, against 219.4 million a year earlier: about 11 percent less (our arithmetic). Toms were 121.4 million pounds and hens 74.4 million.

NASS's table of record highs and lows for September lists the 2026 whole-turkey figure as the lowest since its records began in March 2001, and the hen figure as the lowest since its hen records began in April 2001. September 30 is the last count NASS published before Thanksgiving.

Not everything is down. Frozen turkey breasts were 66.2 million pounds, 17 percent more than a year earlier, and turkey legs were above last year too. If a whole bird of the size you want is hard to find, there is more breast meat in the system than last year.

Prices: up at wholesale and in stores

ERS says weekly prices for frozen whole hen turkeys "remain elevated," with bids averaging 184.0 cents per pound for the week ending October 2. It forecasts a 2026 annual average of 175.5 cents per pound for frozen whole hens, against WASDE's 135.8 cents for 2025: about 29 percent higher (our arithmetic). It expects the fourth quarter to average 175 cents, against 172.2 cents in the fourth quarter of 2025, about 2 percent higher (our arithmetic), and 2027 to average 145 cents. These are wholesale prices for 8 to 16 pound hens, not shelf prices, which vary by store and by sale.

In stores, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks "other uncooked poultry including turkey" in its Consumer Price Index. That index was 224.751 in September 2026 against 207.413 in September 2025, a rise of 8.4 percent (our arithmetic, not seasonally adjusted). BLS has no figure for October 2025 because of the lapse in appropriations, so when October 2026 is published there will be no year-earlier October to compare it with.

The American Farm Bureau Federation's annual Thanksgiving dinner survey, which prices turkey and the rest of the meal, is being collected from November 1 to 5 this year and its results are due on November 18. We will add them, and we won't guess the number.

Bird flu and turkey flocks, dated

ERS says highly pathogenic avian influenza "has reappeared in several commercial turkey flocks in August and September" as fall migration begins. It records eleven cases in Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota and South Dakota in September, affecting 544,900 birds, and two cases affecting 119,300 birds in August, with data as of October 9. For scale, APHIS says more than 218 million turkeys were processed in the United States in 2023.

Detections have continued into late October. The Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship announced on October 28, 2026 that bird flu had been detected in a commercial turkey flock in Sac County, "Iowa's eighth detection of H5N1 HPAI in 2026." It added: "It remains safe to enjoy eggs and poultry products." APHIS keeps the running list of confirmed flocks on its website; its dashboard is the place to check the latest count.

For people, CDC's bird flu page, updated October 15, 2026, says: "While the current public health risk is low, CDC is watching the situation carefully." Infected flocks are depopulated under federal and state supervision, Newsweek reports, citing APHIS guidance. USDA's October reports do not attribute their turkey price changes to bird flu.

What it means for your Thanksgiving

USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) says most turkeys sold in the United States are frozen, and that "while frozen, a turkey is safe indefinitely." So if you see a frozen bird in the size you want, there is no reason to wait for a sale that may not come: buy it and keep it at 0 degrees F. FSIS says food stored constantly at 0 degrees F will always be safe, and only quality suffers with long storage.

Fresh is different. FSIS says fresh turkeys should not be purchased until one or two days before Thanksgiving unless the tag has a "Best by" or "Use by" date showing it will keep until then; with no tag, buy the Tuesday or Wednesday before at the earliest, and freeze it if you bring it home sooner.

Thawing takes longer than most people expect. FSIS says to allow about 24 hours for each 4 to 5 pounds in a refrigerator at 40 degrees F or below, and a thawed turkey can stay in the refrigerator for 1 to 2 days before cooking. Counting back from Thursday, November 26 (our arithmetic from FSIS's table): start a 20 to 24 pound bird by Friday, November 20; 16 to 20 pounds by Saturday, November 21; 12 to 16 pounds by Sunday, November 22; 4 to 12 pounds by Monday, November 23. Faster: cold water, about 30 minutes per pound, changing the water every 30 minutes, then cook at once.

• Frozen whole bird: buy when you see your size; safe indefinitely at 0 degrees F (FSIS)
• Fresh bird: buy Tuesday or Wednesday before, unless the tag's date says otherwise (FSIS)
• Refrigerator thaw: 24 hours per 4 to 5 pounds; 16 to 20 pounds needs 4 to 5 days (FSIS)
• Cook to 165 degrees F, checked with a food thermometer; refrigerate leftovers within two hours (FSIS)
• Size sold out? Two smaller birds, or a bird plus a breast, cook faster and thaw faster (our suggestion)

What not to do

Don't buy a second turkey, or fill a freezer, because of a shortage headline. USDA forecasts more turkey this year than last, and the tightness it describes is in whole birds, not in turkey overall. A turkey you don't cook is money in the freezer, and FSIS says quality, not safety, is what declines there.

Don't take a 2025 headline as a 2026 forecast. If Thanksgiving week brings a storm or a power outage, our food safety in a power outage guide covers how long a full freezer holds. For the rest of the table, eggs, groceries and USDA's wider forecasts, see our Thanksgiving food shortage check. If you want an emergency pantry for its own sake, that is a separate project: our emergency food storage guide explains how to build one you will actually eat.