Tropical Storm Pena moves west, 530 miles off the Big Island: no watches, and a home checklist

What the Central Pacific Hurricane Center says about Pena

Pena grew from "an area of low pressure (Invest CP95) that we have been monitoring for several days", CPHC wrote in its first discussion. Advisories began at 11 AM HST on Friday, November 6, with the storm about 650 miles southeast of South Point and winds near 45 mph. The headline of that first advisory read: "TROPICAL STORM PENA FORMS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BUT IS NO THREAT TO LAND". CPHC is part of the National Weather Service in Honolulu; Pena's advisories are being issued for it by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami.

In Advisory 5, at 11 AM HST on Saturday, November 7, Pena was "ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII", moving west-northwest at 9 mph. Its headline: "PENA REMAINS STEADY WHILE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS". Its maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph, its central pressure was 998 millibars, and tropical-storm-force winds reached up to 45 miles from the center. CPHC said: "There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect." Under "HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND" it wrote "None".

When we checked at 10:45 AM HST on November 7, the National Weather Service showed no active watches, warnings or advisories of any kind for Hawaii. CPHC's wind speed probability table, which lists a place only when its 5-day chance of tropical-storm-force winds is at least 3 percent, named only open-ocean points far to the south and southwest, and no place in Hawaii.

Where the forecast takes it

CPHC expects Pena to keep heading west. Its 11 AM HST discussion says Pena "is expected to maintain a general westward motion over the next couple of days while steered by a broad low- to mid-level ridge anchored to its north." After about three days, "an approaching upper-level shortwave trough should induce a gradual turn toward the northwest with a slight increase in forward speed." The forecast positions stay between 11.5 and 14.5 degrees north, ending at 14.5 north, 177.7 west at 8 AM HST on Thursday, November 12.

The forecast is less sure about strength. CPHC forecasts winds of 65 mph within 12 hours and 75 mph from Wednesday morning, just above the 73 mph top of NHC's tropical storm range. It calls its intensity forecast "a bit of a conundrum": Pena "is likely contending with mid-level dry air entrainment and marginal upper-level winds, which could suppress significant strengthening over the next 36 to 48 h," and wide differences between the models are "yielding lower-than-usual forecast confidence."

CPHC's Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 AM HST placed Pena "several hundred miles south-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii" and said: "Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days." Forecasts can change, and CPHC updates its advisories through the day. Our hurricane tracker shows Pena and any warning as NHC publishes them.

Is it really the first November tropical storm there since 1982?

CPHC's advisories and discussions on Pena don't say so. We checked NOAA's best-track records for the Eastern and Central Pacific (HURDAT2, 1949 to 2025), counting storms that first reached tropical-storm strength between 140 and 180 degrees west, the area CPHC's outlook covers. In our reading of that data, three did so in November: Nina on November 29, 1957, Ruby on November 13, 1972, and Iwa on November 19, 1982. Paka became a tropical depression there on November 28, 1997, but only reached tropical-storm strength on December 2. On that record, Pena is the first since Iwa. Records from before 1949 aren't in the file.

Iwa went on to reach the islands. The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency (HIEMA) says that on the night of November 23, 1982, "Hurricane Iwa struck Kauaʻi, Oʻahu and Niʻihau as a Category 1 hurricane with winds sustained at 90 mph." CPHC's latest advisory describes Pena "PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS", and its forecast takes it farther west. HIEMA says Hawaii's season "runs from June through November, with peak season historically being in August and September."

What about El Niño?

The press headline links Pena to an intensifying El Niño. CPHC's Pena advisories and discussions don't mention El Niño, and we don't draw a link they haven't. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its October 8 update that "El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027". Its next update is due on November 12. Our El Niño winter guide explains what CPC's outlook says for US homes.

A short Hawaii home checklist for the rest of the season

None of this needs a shopping trip, and none of it is because of Pena. It is HIEMA's and NWS's standing advice, and the season has three weeks left.

• Two weeks of supplies. HIEMA says people in Hawaiʻi "need to stock up with two weeks of emergency supplies in case a disaster like a hurricane or tsunami damages ports and supply chains." It recommends a gallon of water per person per day: "for two weeks, you will need 14 gallons of water per person in your home." Our emergency kit checklist has the full list.
• Know your zone. NWS says to "Find out if you live in a hurricane evacuation area by contacting your local government/emergency management office". Our state pages link Hawaii's emergency management office.
• Check your insurance. NWS says to review your policies "to ensure that you have adequate coverage for your home and personal property."
• Know the last-minute list, for if a storm is ever forecast to hit. HIEMA's includes "Bringing outdoor furniture, trash cans, decorations or anything that could be blown around by hurricane winds" and "Clearing gutters and drains to ensure water flow from heavy rain."
• Make sure your phone gets alerts. Our guide to emergency alerts on your phone shows how to switch them on.
• Be ready to follow official orders. HIEMA says to "Be ready to act on evacuation orders or shelter-in-place orders that may be given leading up to and during a hurricane."

What you don't need to do

You don't need to buy anything or stock up because of Pena. CPHC lists no hazards affecting land, and no watch or warning is in effect. Read CPHC's own advisories rather than shared screenshots, and check our hurricane tracker and live alerts page. If a watch or warning is ever issued where you live, follow your county's emergency officials. Our hurricane preparedness guide covers what to do before, during and after a storm.