Will there be a shortage of toilet paper? What the official record shows for your home

Will there be a shortage of toilet paper? What people are asking

"Will there be a shortage of toilet paper" is a question people type into search engines, like the same question about water and diesel. This page checks it against the official places a supply problem or a price jump would show up: federal notices, the government's price data and the preparedness lists from Ready.gov, FEMA and the Red Cross.

We don't predict whether a shortage will happen. We report what those sources say today and what it means for a household.

What the official record shows

Notices: the Federal Register is where federal agencies publish their rules and notices. A search of documents published since January 1, 2025 for "toilet paper", "toilet tissue" and tissue paper shortages found nothing about a supply problem. That search doesn't cover every state, store or company, so it can't rule out a local or brand-level gap on a shelf.

Preparedness pages: Ready.gov's emergency kit page, updated July 1, 2026, and its pandemic page, updated March 5, 2026, don't mention a shortage of household goods. Neither does the Red Cross's list of survival kit supplies.

What prices show

Shop prices: BLS's household paper products index, part of the Consumer Price Index, rose 2.9% from September to October 2026, in the release of November 10. It fell 1.4% from August to September and rose 0.6% from July to August, so it moves a few percent either way from month to month. The group covers more than toilet paper, and BLS doesn't publish a separate toilet paper index.

BLS couldn't publish the usual 12-month change this time. It says it "did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations," so it "cannot publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026" for indexes like this one. By our reading of BLS's index, October's level was 0.6% above September 2025, the last month before the gap.

Wholesale prices, which are not shop prices: BLS's producer price index for sanitary tissue paper made in paper mills was 2.8% above a year earlier in October, by our reading of its preliminary figures. Its index for the sanitary paper industry as a whole was 0.8% lower.

What is confirmed, and what is not

Confirmed: household paper prices rose in October, by 2.9% in a month, according to BLS. Wholesale tissue prices from paper mills are a little above last year's.

Not confirmed: a toilet paper shortage. We found no federal notice of one, and no official source we read forecasts one. Rising prices are not the same as empty shelves. If an official body does report a supply problem, we will update this page.

What happened last time

At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, FEMA's March 26, 2020 rumor control page said: "Consumer demand has been exceptionally high, especially for groceries, cleaning supplies, and healthcare products. Supply chains haven't been disrupted, but stores need time to restock."

Its advice then was: "Please only buy what your family needs for a week. Buying weeks or months of supplies in advance leads to shortages." Ready.gov's pandemic page gives the same message today: "Buy supplies slowly to ensure that everyone has the opportunity to buy what they need."

How much toilet paper should a household keep?

No official list gives a number of rolls. Ready.gov says to have "your own food, water and other supplies to last for several days," and its kit list covers personal sanitation with "Moist towelettes, garbage bags and plastic ties." The Red Cross says to keep "2-week supply for home" of water and food, and lists "Sanitation and personal hygiene items."

Our reading, not an official figure: keep about 2 weeks of what your household normally uses, to match the Red Cross's home figure for food and water. If you're short, add a pack on your next normal shop rather than a special trip. Our stockpiling guide and kit builder cover the rest of the list, sized to your household.

What not to do

Don't bulk-buy because of a search trend or a headline. FEMA's 2020 advice was that buying weeks or months ahead "leads to shortages and makes it difficult for other families to take care of themselves." Keeping a normal household supply is fine: ordinary household stockpiling isn't illegal, as our stockpiling law check explains.

Don't buy months of toilet paper because prices rose in October. BLS's index for household paper products moves a few percent either way from month to month, and it fell 1.4% in September.