Will there be a shortage of diesel? What EIA data says and what it means for your household

Will there be a shortage of diesel? What people are asking

Headlines this week, such as "Gas prices dip below $4 but inflation remains stubbornly high," have people asking about diesel, which costs far more. EIA's figures confirm the gas part: regular averaged $3.995 a gallon in the week of November 9, the first weekly average under $4 since July. Our gas price story has what that means for a household budget.

Diesel is a different picture. It averaged $6.127 a gallon that week, $2.132 more than regular gas. This page checks the shortage question against EIA's supply data and EPA's fuel waivers, the official places a fuel supply problem would show up.

What EIA's data shows

Prices: in its November 10 release, EIA's US average for on-highway diesel was $6.127 a gallon for the week of November 9, down from $6.352 two weeks earlier and up from $3.837 a year earlier. Every region fell this week. California was highest at $7.897 and the West Coast as a whole at $7.110; the Lower Atlantic was lowest at $5.694, then the Gulf Coast at $5.741. New England was $6.349 and the Midwest $6.201.

Supply: EIA's weekly supply report, released November 4 for the week ending October 30, said distillate inventories fell 3.6 million barrels and were 13% below the five-year average. Refineries ran at 94.5% of capacity, and the four-week average of distillate supplied, EIA's measure of demand, was 4.2 million barrels a day, up 8.7% on a year earlier. EIA's next weekly report is due Thursday, November 12, delayed by the Veterans Day closure.

What is confirmed, and what is not

Confirmed: diesel supplies are below normal and prices are high. EPA has also issued diesel waivers for two places. On November 10 it renewed a Texas waiver, first issued October 5, to prevent "extreme and unusual fuel supply disruptions affecting diesel supply within the state of Texas," through December 3. It renewed a waiver for "diesel deliveries above the Arctic Circle in Alaska," running November 14 to December 3. Both let certain older diesel vehicles and equipment use higher-sulfur diesel.

Not confirmed: a national diesel shortage. EPA's waiver page lists no nationwide diesel waiver, and none of the EIA reports we read this week describes a national shortage. EIA's outlook describes supply constraints and high prices, but not a national shortage. That doesn't rule out local supply problems: EPA says it "stands ready to extend the waiver if warranted," and an area can still run short for a while, as some Omaha stations did in October (our Nebraska check).

Why diesel is tight

EIA says the gap between crude oil and wholesale fuel prices, the crack spread, has been high "because of damage to refineries in the Middle East and Russia that has reduced volumes of refined petroleum product exports available to the global market." Its October winter outlook added that "U.S. distillate fuel stocks are low heading into winter."

US refiners have responded by making more diesel. EIA reported on November 5 that refinery yields of distillate fuel oil "have been above the five-year average in every month" this year, while gasoline yields fell. Winter adds pressure: EIA explains that "heating oil and diesel fuel are practically the same fuels," and that in fall and winter "the demand for heating oil affects diesel fuel prices." Its November 10 outlook expects crack spreads to "remain elevated for the remainder of the year and through most of 2027."

What it means for your home

If you drive a diesel vehicle, the cost is the main effect. EIA's outlook puts diesel at an average of $5.25 a gallon for 2026 and $5.03 next year, up from the $4.49 it forecast for 2027 a month ago. The ways to use less fuel in our gas price story apply to diesel vehicles too.

If you heat with oil, this matters more. About 4.59 million US households used heating oil as their main heating fuel in the winter of 2024 to 2025, EIA says, about 82% of them in the Northeast. EIA's residential heating oil average was $6.138 a gallon in the week of November 2, $2.506 above a year ago, and in October it expected heating oil spending to rise 21% on last winter. Our heating oil and propane prices page has the weekly figures by state, and our help paying guide covers LIHEAP, which can help "with home heating bills," according to the Administration for Children and Families.

Keep your car's tank at least half full, as the Red Cross advises, so you can leave or reach help if you need to. That means filling up earlier, not buying more.

What not to do

Don't fill extra cans of diesel or other fuel to store at home. CPSC says to store flammable liquids "outside of living areas in properly-labeled, non-glass safety containers."

Don't put higher-sulfur diesel in a newer engine because of the waivers. They cover certain older vehicles and equipment only, and EPA says "Requirements for newer engines that need ULSD remain in effect." Check your owner's manual for the fuel your engine needs.