Will there be a shortage of water? What the Drought Monitor shows and how much to store

Will there be a shortage of water? What people are asking

"Will there be a shortage of water" is a common question, not a headline from one outlet. We found no single viral claim behind it; it comes up when drought maps, dry wells and watering bans are in the news, as they were in parts of the country this fall.

So we checked the two things the question mixes together: how much of the country is in drought right now, from the US Drought Monitor, and what drought actually does to the water in your home, from EPA, CDC and USGS. We looked for a nationwide water shortage notice on the EPA and Ready.gov pages we read, and found none. That is what we found, not proof that no local shortage exists anywhere: local restrictions are real, and we cover them below.

What the Drought Monitor shows this week

The US Drought Monitor is a weekly map produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln with USDA and NOAA. Drought.gov says it "is released every Thursday morning, with data valid through Tuesday at 7am Eastern." The latest map is dated Tuesday, November 3, 2026, and was released on Thursday, November 5.

On that map, 43.98% of the contiguous United States was in moderate drought (D1) or worse, down 5.51 points from 49.49% on October 27 and down from 59.38% on September 29, the high of this fall. For balance, 8.20% was in extreme drought (D3) or worse, and the 2026 high was 62.78% on April 21. A year earlier, on the November 4, 2025 map, the figure was 43.71%, so the lower 48 is about where it was this time last year, though extreme drought or worse covers 8.20% against 3.82% then (our reading of the Drought Monitor's data).

The Monitor's summary for the week says "The very wet fall continued across the southwest quarter of the contiguous U.S. to end October" and that "a broad 1-category improvement was made to the Southwest and Great Basin." It adds that "lingering long-term drought remains designated for parts of these areas." In the other direction, "Drought expanded and intensified for parts of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England."

On the Monitor's data, Minnesota fell from 62.59% to 27.78% of its area in drought in a week and Utah from 91.17% to 66.22%. Kentucky rose from 16.25% to 37.02%. All of Maine (100%) is in drought, and Arkansas has 96.53% of its area in drought and 82.1% in extreme drought or worse. Alaska and Hawaii, the Monitor says, "remain drought-free," while it reports exceptional drought on St. Thomas and St. John in the US Virgin Islands. Every state's figure is on our US drought tracker, which reads the Monitor twice a day. The next map is due on Thursday, November 12.

Drought is not the same as a tap-water shortage

The Drought Monitor measures conditions on the land. Its inputs include "precipitation, streamflow, reservoir levels, temperature and evaporative demand, soil moisture and vegetation health," blended with reports from local experts. Its percentages are shares of land area, not of people, and a county in drought can still have full reservoirs or a deep aquifer behind its water system.

USGS says public suppliers "withdraw water from rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and wells and then deliver it to our homes, businesses, and schools," and that "about 86 percent" of the US population gets its water this way. Whether your tap is affected depends mainly on that supplier's sources and storage, not on the color of your county on a national map.

Drought can still reach the tap. CDC lists "compromised quantity and quality of drinking water" among the possible public health effects of drought, and EPA says "Prolonged drought can deplete groundwater aquifers that many communities rely on for drinking water and irrigation." When supplies get tight, one common response is outdoor watering limits: EPA's WaterSense program lists "Increased summer watering restrictions to manage shortages" among the consequences of strained supplies.

Where drought has reached water supplies this year

The clearest recent example is the Northeast. NOAA's monthly drought report for September 2026, published on October 14, carries the regional climate centers' summary: record-low streamflows and groundwater levels in Maine, Maryland and Massachusetts, "dry residential wells in Maine," and "municipal reservoir storage dropping to 20% capacity in Cambridge, Massachusetts, triggering mandatory water restrictions across several states." NOAA's October report was not yet published when we checked on November 11.

Maine is in the worst shape in the Northeast. The Monitor's November 3 summary says that, "Due in part to the lack of recovery from the 2025 drought," 28-day streamflows are in the lowest 5th percentile, which "supports the addition of D3 in the North Woods of Maine." In the South, it reports "poor to very poor pastures along with dry farm ponds" in Mississippi: a farm and livestock problem first, not a household tap-water one.

Households on private wells can be more exposed. CDC says "People who get their drinking water from private wells may be at higher risk for drought-related infectious disease." EPA lists "a change in your water quality (i.e. odor, color, taste)" among the reasons to test a private well, and says your local health department "may provide private well testing for free." For making water safe in an emergency, see our guide to making water safe.

What it means for your home: how much water to store

The emergency water advice is the same in a drought year as in any other. CDC says: "Store at least 1 gallon of water per person, per day for 3 days," for drinking, cooking and brushing teeth, and "Try to store a 2-week supply if possible." For a household of four that is 12 gallons for 3 days and 56 gallons for 2 weeks (our arithmetic). CDC says to consider storing more for pregnant women, people who are sick, pets, or a hot climate.

In a drought, the thing that matters day to day is your local rule, not your stockpile. Ready.gov says: "Always observe state and local restrictions on water use during a drought," and to contact your state or local government for current information. It also says "The best way to prepare for a drought is to conserve water." EPA's WaterSense says the average American family uses more than 300 gallons of water per day at home, and outdoor use is 30 percent of household use nationally, so lawns and gardens are where the big savings are.

• Store 1 gallon per person, per day: at least 3 days, 2 weeks if you can (CDC)
• Replace water you bottled yourself every 6 months (CDC, Ready.gov)
• Follow your state's and utility's watering rules during a drought (Ready.gov)
• Never ration drinking water unless ordered to by authorities (Ready.gov)
• On a private well: test if the water's odor, color or taste changes; your local health department may test it for free (EPA)

What not to do

You don't need to buy bottled water because of a drought map. CDC calls unopened, commercially bottled water "the safest and most reliable source of water in an emergency," and also tells people filling their own to "Use clean containers to collect and store your water," so you can fill containers from the tap today at no cost. Our water storage guide explains containers and rotation, and our stockpile guide sizes food and water together.

Don't ration the water you drink. Ready.gov says: "Never ration drinking water unless ordered to do so by authorities. Drink the amount you need today and try to find more for tomorrow." Cutting back on lawns, long showers and half-empty dishwasher loads is what drought conservation means. And don't read a national percentage as a forecast for your town: it is a map of dry land this week, and it changes every Thursday.